The company, through its subsidiary Driftwood LNG LLC (Driftwood), is developing an LNG production and export terminal on the west bank of the Calcasieu River, south of Lake Charles, Louisiana. The U.S. Henry Hub gas benchmark , meanwhile, was trading near $3 per mmBtu, prompting buyers around the world to purchase all the LNG the United States can provide. Build the strongest argument relying on authoritative content, attorney-editor expertise, and industry defining technology. Big Reserves Saudi Arabia has some of the world's biggest gas reserves, though they've mainly been used for the domestic market. Click here to request a trial. Meanwhile, the delays in investment decisions are primarily blamed upon the insufficient number of customers signing long-term deals needed to finance the multibillion-dollar facilities. WARNING: Any stocks that you feel like buying after discussions with me are your responsibility. [email protected] Over the past decade, it has made growing its natural gas trading, production, and supply business a key priority. The idea is that with natural gas prices so high internationally compared with the US, it makes a lot of sense to export and arbitrage the difference. It's a high beta stock. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. ISSN 1532-1231 ConocoPhillips (COP): Free Stock Analysis Report, Hess Corporation (HES): Free Stock Analysis Report, Magellan Petroleum Corporation (TELL): Free Stock Analysis Report, TotalEnergies SE Sponsored ADR (TTE): Free Stock Analysis Report. Responsive Menu. Infrastructure Tellurian has a contract with Bechtel to build the liquefaction plant. The definitive agreements are consistent with the terms contemplated by the Heads of Agreement announced on April 3, 2019, and are subject to certain closing conditions, including the final investment decision (FID) to construct Driftwood. Shares of the company have outperformed the industry in the past six months. This I already discussed in my previous bullish article. Souki contends that the reason why Tellurian was not at the discussion table with Chevron had been that Tellurian didn't want to be in a position to overpromise and underdeliver on its contract. According to the consensus compiled by MarketBeat, Tellurian is covered by seven analysts. Tellurian has an amazing story. The company currently carries a Zack Rank #3 (Hold). Plans to add two more plants would bring the total projects capacity to a whopping 27.6 MTPA for a total cost of US$30 billion. All quotes delayed a minimum of 15 minutes. After pushing back the final investment decision (FID) for its Louisiana-based Driftwood LNG plant from 2021 to 2022, liquefied natural gas (LNG) startup, Tellurian, now expects to commence construction in April. Why? However, it has contracted a total of 9 MTPA worth of sale and purchase agreements (SPAs). Nevertheless, as ebullient as always, Tellurian's Chairman Charif Souki took to his YT channel in the past few days to dispel certain myths, that Souki believes have plagued the stock. In May 2021, Tellurian secured the first two SPAs, one with Vitol, a commodity trading firm, and the second with Gunvor, the largest independent global trader of LNG by volume. Natural Gas Corporate Earnings Call list - 4Q2022, 2023 North American Pipeline, LNG & Market Hubs Map, This article is part of NGI's Shale Daily. A wealth of resources for individual investors is available at www.zacks.com. Please. The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc. 2023, Nasdaq, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Tellurian has said the first phase of Driftwood would cost about $16.8 billion and produce about 16.5 MTPA of LNG. ISSN 2577-9877 2023 Natural Gas Intelligence. As an experienced professional, I highlight the best stocks to grow your savings: stocks that deliver strong gains. By the start of 2020, several LNG export projects had already reached a final investment decision, putting . $8 billion to come from debt. By the start of 2020, several LNG export. Tellurian had 96 million outstanding shares at the end of 2016 compared to 470 million currently. To get to Final Investment Decision, Tellurian needs to secure additional natural gas assets in the Haynesville shale. Hence, the dismissal of the share purchase and equity contribution agreement resulted in the expiry of the LNG offtake agreement. Both companies had a contractual right to nix their deals after the company failed to meet a July 31 deadline on a final investment decision that could have paved the way for construction to begin . DEEP VALUE RETURNS: The only Marketplace with real performance. The agreements were subject to the relevant regulatory approvals and Tellurian had to make a final investment decision for the project by Jul 10, 2021. (Adds delay of final investment decision to Q1 2022 from 2021) May 27 (Reuters) - U.S . The industry leader for online information for tax, accounting and finance professionals. Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. This article provides a discussion of the bull and bear cases facing Tellurian. If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. But does this mean it won't get built at all? Headquartered in Houston, TX, Tellurian is a liquefied natural gas developer. In this case, it will need to dilute shareholders by around 6.2x. But more recently, Tellurian also saw two crucial contracts get canceled. | And not only robust, but stable, and predictable! Some analysts interviewed said the end of the TotalEnergies share purchase agreement could free Tellurian to sign other deal to sell LNG; the company has reportedly been in talks with other companies to sell the super-cooled fuel. Click here to request a free trial. That being said, in the past several days, natural gas prices on the spot market have been soaring back, and are now, once again, edging back to $7 MMBtu. Particularly noting that in this higher interest rate and inflationary environment, there are too many cross currents and this would not be prudent. Tellurian is a very volatile stock and not one for the faint-hearted. The first phase would have a nameplate production capacity of 11 million mt/y per year of LNG. Zacks has just revealed 3 companies that can help investors capitalize on the explosive profit potential of Bitcoin and the other cryptocurrencies with significantly less volatility than buying them directly. The signing of the Vitol and Gunvor deals helped push Tellurian stock up about 250% so far this year. Get them exclusively at Deep Value Returns. As per usual, Souki took to YT to argue his take. Follow the topics you want and receive the daily emails. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. This is not a significant dilution and amounts to less than 4%. 2023 Natural Gas Intelligence. The downside is that it is extremely capital-intensive and places a lot more industry, macroeconomic, and geopolitical risks on Tellurian rather than a diversified network of partners. Type a symbol or company name. | I provide a hand-holding service. And yet, we are now in 2023, and this crucial milestone isn't even discussed. In 2021, Tellurian reported $27 million in first quarter losses and terminated a $700 million deal with TotalEnergies, after Tellurian failed once again to reach a final investment decision for Driftwood. Each SPA is for 3 MTPA of LNG over a 10-year period. While selling this same volume in Europe would bring around $150 million per month. The company reported a net loss of $210.7 million (minus 79 cents/share) in 2020, compared to a net loss of $151.8 million (minus 69 cents) in 2019. Tellurian Inc., which continues to work toward a final investment decision on its Driftwood liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal proposed for Louisiana, plans to acquire additional assets in the Haynesville Shale this year. Another big fear for investors could be the dilution of their holdings. Two-thirds debt to one-third equity. Download now.]. (Reuters) Sempra Energy reported fourth-quarter profit that beat analysts' estimates on Tuesday, helped by higher earnings from its California utilities. While this does not fully change the investment case here, it does support the case that Tellurian has cash-flow generating assets. My Marketplace highlights a portfolio of undervalued investment opportunities - stocks with rapid growth potential, driven by top quality management, while these stocks are cheaply valued. So is there any hope left for Tellurian? So the core business is priced at 4x EBITDA. Souki describes the all too familiar narrative, that Europe is desperate for LNG supplies. Deep Value Returns' Marketplace continues to rapidly grow. The Shell, Vitol and Gunvor deals all were signed before Russias invasion of Ukraine at a time when sellers had a better advantage in negotiations as demand was slowly rebounding after the Covid-19 pandemic. This would put the stock priced at somewhere around 3x its 2026 cash flows. Total also will purchase about 20 million additional. FIND OUT MORE Downstream capabilities View our downstream services Insights NGI All News Access. If you have an ad-blocker enabled you may be blocked from proceeding. That would mean that for Tellurian to get hold of its much-needed $6 billion via equity, its shareholders would need to be diluted by approximately 7x. Tellurian has no signed Final Investment Decision. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Create your Watchlist to save your favorite quotes on Nasdaq.com. Tellurian has been working toward a final investment decision on Driftwood, which the company said it thinks will cost $28.9 billion, for years. Similar to an integrated oil and gas major that contributes to the entire integrated supply chain of upstream, midstream, and downstream, Tellurian plans to operate its business from the wellhead to the export terminal. Tellurian is reasonably well capitalized, with very roughly $400 million of net cash. March 29, 2022 CNG/LNG, Exporting, Industrywide Issues Driftwood LNG plan (click for larger version) Driftwood LNG, a 27.6 million tonnes of LNG per year facility that will cost on the order of $16.8 billion to build, has not made an official final investment decision (FID) to proceed with building the FERC-approved project. This one is in the bag. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Before that, I highlight that over the Christmas season, when traders and analysts would have been busy, on December 30, Tellurian signaled its intention to dilute shareholders by 20 million shares. Washington DC | New York | Houston | Pittsburgh | Mexico City Calgary | Chile. | Building its highly coveted Driftwood will cost $14 billion. Bulls may disagree with this, but what bulls will agree with is that this stock is not for the faint-hearted. Tellurian, however, has not yet made that decision, making Driftwood one of more than a dozen North American LNG projects that have repeatedly pushed back decisions to start construction due primarily to an insufficient number of customers signing the long-term deals needed to finance the multi-billion-dollar facilities. The one-line takeaway is this, Tellurian is a very high-risk investment. The difference between selling 150 million cubic feet domestically would bring in around $35 million in revenues per month. Well, there's always hope. Saudi Arabia to Use $110 Billion Gas Field for Blue Hydrogen More specially, Souki notes that nothing has happened with its contract with Gunvor. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. Going forward, a lot will depend on the FID. People may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Liquefied Natural Gas Days before the Shell and Vitol deals were canceled, Tellurian announced that it had withdrawn a high-yield bond sale, citing the impacts of inflation and uncertainty in the debt market. DEEP VALUE RETURNS: The only Marketplace with real performance. So, let's get to this story's next episode. As an experienced professional, I highlight the best stocks to grow your savings: stocks that deliver strong gains. And that Tellurian could then further increase its total volume. Under its commercial framework, Driftwood Phase 1 is expected to generate around US$3.7 billion in earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) per year. But in case those risks were forgotten, today everyone has been reminded. esgreview.net, Siemens Gamesa Warns Of Further Challenges Ahead For Wind Energy Market In 2022, Rivian EV Production Set To Double In 2023, Nassimi Announces PFAS-Free Production Of All Fabrics. No gimmicks. Given these concerns, the company is going to be a high-risk, high-reward bet that's only suitable for highly risk-tolerant investors. Tellurian reported a full-year net loss of $49.8 million (minus 9 cents/share), compared to a net loss of $114.7 million (28 cents) in 2021. LNG In May, Tellurian agreed to supply 3 mtpa of LNG over a 10-year period to Gunvor Singapore. The agreements were subject to the relevant regulatory approvals and Tellurian had to make a final investment decision for the project by Jul 10, 2021. Other major company-specific developments have been the signing of its long-term contracts for uptake of potential production from its Driftwood project. Next, Tellurian's share price is trading at a multi-year low. However, the company missed the deadline for sanctioning the project, which resulted in the termination of the deals. Members of Deep Value Returns get exclusive access to our model portfolio. [email protected] Per the terms of the deal, TotalEnergies had an option to purchase 1.5 million tons per year of LNG from Tellurian. In sum, there are three items overhanging Tellurian. Tellurian has made the argument that in the ideal situation, the business would raise the $12 billion to build the LNG facility with $8 billion of debt and $4 billion of equity. Tellurian stock has risen by nearly 190 percent YTD due to several positive developments. [2023 Natural Gas Price Outlook: How will the energy industry continue to evolve in 2023? I follow countless companies and select for you the most attractive investments. U.S. LNG exporters . B.Riley analyst Liam Burke is positive on the stock. Washington DC | New York | Houston | Pittsburgh | Mexico City Calgary | Chile. Tellurian (NYSE:TELL) shareholders have been hit hard with bad news. It's not just an out-of-the-money option. The company had previously announced it hoped to achieve commerciality in the first quarter of 2022. High-quality, actionable insightful stock picks. So the core. But investors shouldn't forget about the core business, that's guided for $400 million of EBITDA. As a reference point, Cheniere is also priced very roughly at 4x next year's EBITDA! I argue that this meaningfully improves the bull. At the FID point, major equipment orders are placed, and contracts are signed for EPC. Sign In, Listen to the latest episode of our newest podcast, *Download Report Now* High Stakes for Natural Gas & The World Is All-In, N.A. Therefore, it has been the companys historically preferred method of funding and is expected to remain so. The LNG market has since tightened and the outlook is improving as the global economy recovers in the aftermath of the Covid-19 outbreak. $6 billion from equity. Believing that transparent markets empower businesses, economies, and communities, Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI) provides natural gas price transparency and key news, insights and data for the North American energy markets. Tellurian ( NYSE: TELL) yesterday announced that in 2023 it's likely to see $400 million of EBITDA from one of its wholly-owned subsidiaries. The company ended 2020 with $78.3 million of cash and cash equivalents and $72.8 million in short-term borrowings. The timing of this stock issuance is suspicious, to say the least. Screen for heightened risk individual and entities globally to help uncover hidden risks in business relationships and human networks. The sales and purchase agreement (SPA) was amended to give Gunvor the option of walking away if Tellurian failed to meet conditions, including sanctioning the Driftwood project and securing financing by Feb. 28. Driftwood isn't expected to produce its first feed gas at least until 20252026 and assume a decision by the first quarter of 2022. From the start, Tellurian has been a story stock. High upside energy, commodity, tech, and dividend stocks. Some better-ranked players in the energy space are ConocoPhillips COP and Hess Corporation HES, each currently sporting a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). WARNING: Any stocks that you feel like buying after discussions with me are your responsibility. 2 min read. Some call it the Internet of Money and predict it could change the way money works forever. June 3 (Reuters) - U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) developer Tellurian Inc (TELL.O) said on Thursday it had signed a 10-year sale and purchase agreement with commodity trader Vitol for 3 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of LNG. Tellurian stock caught the eye of the meme crowd this year as natural gas prices rallied. We are all working together to compound returns. Indeed, what can go wrong? "They must feel the best way to get this project built is to by selling the offtake to traders, rather than [gas-producing] companies.". Experts agree were still in the early stages of this technology, and as it grows, it will create several investing opportunities. This means that Cheniere will be able to get its Corpus Christi (''CC'') up and running at least 9 months before Driftwood. The most comprehensive solution to manage all your complex and ever-expanding tax and compliance needs. July 12 (Reuters) - U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) developer Tellurian Inc (TELL.O) said on Monday it terminated a stock and LNG purchase agreement with France's TotalEnergies SE (TTEF.PA) related to Tellurian's proposed Driftwood LNG export plant in Louisiana. A win for shareholders, as their business will be generating robust free cash flows. what does ymb mean in the last mrs parrish; what are the chances of my dog getting heartworms; chrisfix email address; dr myron wentz covid vaccine; matter dimensions guide; The deals are expected to generate $24 billion in revenues over 10 years, based on current prices. Please. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). ISSN 2158-8023 Tellurian stock has been pumped up this year due to rising natural gas prices and the meme crowd. Do Not Sell My Personal Information (CA Residents Only). In a video posted yesterday, Tellurian's Charif Souki explained why Tellurian had not felt comfortable in committing the remaining 2 million tonnes of its 11 million tonnes per year facility. There simply were no takers. Tellurian said it planned to make a final investment decision on its $30 billion Driftwood project, which includes pipelines and production fields in addition to the liquefaction plant, in. That being said, nobody wants to hear of their stock being diluted, particularly with the stock down so significantly in the past year. Management did not say in the companys earnings release whether it would curb drilling activity because of depressed prices as other producers are doing across the country. Driftwood is categorically not getting built by 2026. Its strategy is to secure low-cost natural gas and design and construct low-cost liquefaction. The bigger question is what LNG prices will be in 2026. I believe that the best way to describe Tellurian is as a very long-dated option, on a black swan event, that Driftwood one day actually gets built. However, the company missed the. Members of Deep Value Returns get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. The partners were to receive LNG from the project. If true, it could do to banks what Netflix did to Blockbuster and Amazon did to Sears. And looking out to next year, Tellurian is expected to make around $400 million of EBITDA. These agreements cover more than 30 percent of the facilitys proposed 27.6 mtpa capacity. I do all the work of picking the most attractive stocks. In June, TELL signed a long-term contract with Vitol for 3 mtpa. Tellurian said that it has received most of the needed permits required for construction and operation with around 30% of the engineering already complete thanks to US$150 million of prior investments. Experts agree were still in the early stages of this stock is not for the faint-hearted, attorney-editor,... Company ended 2020 with $ 78.3 million of net cash low-cost natural gas prices rallied dilute shareholders by around.. Best stocks to grow your savings: stocks that you feel like after... 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